3. Is Anticipation something we do? Or something that just happens to us? Or both?
The introductory description of the Anticipatory Dynamics Collaboratorium speaks of “the processes through which Anticipation is enacted.” That made me wonder whether we were implying that Anticipation is something we do by deliberate effort and action, or whether it’s also clear that Anticipation is something that we just feel as we are caught up in processes that go far beyond our own actions? Maybe connecting these two perspectives can give us some insights into anticipatory dynamics.
“I’m trying to anticipate his next move.” In this case we are deliberately trying to think (and feel) what’s coming next. We know we are making this effort, and we do it by logic and reasoning, using language and maybe images, or even mathematics and diagrams (e.g. game theory). Trying to anticipate everything that could go wrong. But that’s a tall order. How do we wind up focusing on some sorts of possibilities rather than others? What else is involved besides cold cognition? We can’t help but rely on or be influenced to some degree by intuition, by a feeling or sense of what’s more likely, that comes from experience over time and knowing what in a particular context is probably going to be more important. A sort of sixth sense.
All biological systems, and many other kinds of complex multi-scale systems, engage in anticipation. Whether through reasoning or not, they act now in ways that adaptively anticipate future conditions. A bear gets fat before winter’s hibernation. Some animals and insects seem to anticipate when floods or earthquakes are coming. People get premonitions. Sometimes this is anticipation minutes or hours or months into the future. But predators anticipate which way their prey may jump, and top athletes anticipate which way the ball will bounce. Jazz musicians and professional dancers improvising will anticipate their partners next notes and moves.
How does this happen? Anticipatory dynamics tells us that anticipation in general is the result of integration of processes across different timescales. All complex multi-scale systems organize themselves and persist through time because each level of organization is simultaneously a selective organization of smaller scale (faster, shorter timescale) processes and itself selected by (constrained to fit the niche provided by) larger scale (slower, longer timescale) processes. So at whatever scale we look, the “living present” is never a single instant of clock time. It always spans multiple timescales and reaches from the near-past into the near-future. The latter is what we call anticipation, and “near” depends on the relevant scale.
The top athlete who shows an uncanny sense of what will happen in the next seconds of the game has that sense (also known as a “habitus”) because of thousands of hours of playing experience. It has become built into his/her body, activated by patterns of events that they are not even aware of. And this is a way to think about Anticipation as more than what we consciously try to do. Anticipation happens in systems, even transitory ones, that go beyond a single human body (much less just a brain), systems that may exist or come and go again and again over long periods of time. We embody not just the habits and preferences of daily life, but also the values and typical forms of expression of our social group. And unconsciously often of the whole ecosystem (even an urban one) in which we have lived. With those come possibilities for deeper mutual understanding and “communitas”: feelings of oneness, whether in a pop concert or a sports event, where the scale of the system is larger and the time for these feelings to develop is longer than just for individuals.
Our integration into larger systems lets us anticipate more and better and further into the “future” (which is really just the extended present for the longer timescale of the larger system). We can do a lot by rational efforts at prediction, but we can always do more if we also include ways of using our integration into larger systems. That includes being open to feelings and intuitions, trusting in our “instincts” (like the athlete’s habitus) in emergency situations or on short timescales where there’s no time for rational predictions. But how else can we leverage this anticipatory dynamics to help us cope with a rapidly changing world?
This is one of the big questions for the Collaboratorium. Among many possible strategies we look forward to discussing is promoting group anticipation, amplifying the ways in which our participation in diverse groups, whose members have different experiences and angles of connection into our shared larger systems, can enlarge anticipation. As one example, the inter-generational XYZ Shadowboards that can bring more viewpoints and new possibilities to organizations. With recognition that these can be more effective with the right support for their “communitas”, their emotional interaction and mutual inspiration.
To help us get caught up in a fuller Anticipation.